Finally the markets have given some reason to smile

The strong upmove today has been a big relief in an otherwise bearish market till now.

Post budget, the markets have been bearish, and have not given a chance to the long investors to exit.

The sentiment is reflecting in the general volume and brokerage numbers. While the market volumes have been down, some of the partners' volumes have fallen much more sharply.

I am sure all of you must be wondering, how to get out of this situation. After tasting successes in the month of May and June, July has been really subdued.

This trend reversal has been a learning experience and I think all of us should wisen up with this.

There are a few things that we have observed after looking at the broad numbers -

1. A lot of clients built long positions at 15000 levels with expectations that the markets would go up. While the correction was quite gradual, till the budget day, the clients have held their positions.

2. The pre-budget expectations were very high and there was a sense that if the budget does not live up to expectations, the markets will fall sharply. These long clients were betting too much on the budget.

3. Post the budget, the fall has been very sharp closing the exit options for the clients.

The learning that we have are quite a few -

1. The clients should be nimble and should move with the market trends.
2. Stop losses are extremely important when you are investing for short periods (upto 3 months).
3. Hedging whenever there are market moving events like budget, election, key quarterly results, is very important.
4. Derivatives can help offset the risks.

Friends, I am sure you are looking at ways and means to improve your volumes and revenues. One of the key things to grow the broking business is active client base. The more the number of active clients, the more revenue can you make.

Therefore acquiring new clients (of good quality) is as important as activating the existing clients.

There are quite a few clients who have not participated in the post March rally yet. This correction is a great opportunity to approach these clients and get them started.

To help and motivate you, there is an exciting activation contest that has been launched a week before. If you get the targeted number of clients traded, you can earn rewards every day.

My request and suggestion to all of you is to activate as many clients as possible. There are a host of inputs now available to you from research to assist you in getting more active clients.

I will keep writing to you. Do send me your feedback

Calls for 14th july

RESEARCH -Nifty (FUT) R-4000/4035/4120 S-3950/3915/3865; Sensex (CASH)
R-13500/13600/13840 S-13360/13255/13115; MARKET OUTLOOK:
VOLATILE 8.57A

RESEARCH: MARKET OUTLOOK: NIFTY has disappointed after the budget and poor monsoon. Technically NIFTY is trading below the psychological support level of 4092 suggesting weak outlook. Break above 4092 on daily closing basis, NIFTY can move towards 4130 & 4202 levels or even 4232 in short term. Strong recovery can be expected only above 4232 levels.As for intraday’s trade, NIFTY may open with an upside gap and it can be expected to trade sideways. If NIFTY sustains above 4020 levels, then upside target can be placed at 4092 or even 4130 levels. While on the downside, Nifty is likely to take support at 3934 and 3918 levels.

9:46 AM 7/14 RESEARCH-Global Market (in %): DOW JONES (+2.27%), S&P 500 (+2.49%), NASDAQ (+2.12%), FTSE (+1.82%), DAX (+3.19%), NIKKEI (+2.37%), HANG SENG (+2.31%) & SGX NIFTY (+57 POINTS)

11:35 AM 7/14 RESEARCH: SHORT-TERM FUNDAMENTAL CALL : BUY BANK OF RAJ CMP 47 TGT 50.5 SL 45.3

12:22 PM 7/14 RESEARCH : HDFC Bank Q1 PAT down by 4% to Rs 606.11 cr Vs 630.88(QoQ)

1:23 PM 7/14 RESEARCH:INTRADAY CALL (CASH) : BUY INDIA CEM ABOVE 135 TGT 140 SL 132.50

3:00 PM 7/14 RESEARCH : BTST CALL ( CASH ): BUY RENUKA ABOVE 130 TGT 136.50 SL 126.75