Extending gains for the fifth day in a row, gold prices surged to a 52-week high here at Rs 15,000 per ten gram on aggressive buying by funds in line with firming overseas trend.
Gold prices added Rs 130 at Rs 15,040 per ten gram, a level last seen on April 2 as stockists and jewellery makers indulged in creating fresh positions ahead of the festival season.
The precious metal in the current five-day rally gathered a handsome gain of Rs 340 per ten gram on sustained buying by stockists and jewellers.
In overseas markets, which normally set price trends here, gold surged to 940 dollar an ounce on the back of a weak US dollar renewing interest in gold as a safe investment.
A similar strength was noticed in silver as coins and jewellery manufacturers indulged in buying, fearing the metal might further rise.
Silver ready rose by Rs 250 at Rs 22,050 per kg and weekly-based delivery by Rs 320 at Rs 21,920 per kg. The metal managed to gain Rs 750 per kg. Silver coins also rose by Rs 200 at Rs 29,300 for buying and Rs 29,400 for selling of 100 pieces.
Standard gold and ornaments spurted by Rs 130 each at Rs 15,040 and Rs 14,890 per ten gram respectively. Sovereign also moved up by Rs 50 at Rs 12,450 per piece of eight gram.
Thursday, July 16, 2009
Tata Motors to deliver first Nano on Friday
Tata Motors Ltd, India's largest vehicles maker, said on Thursday it would deliver the Nano, the world's cheapest car, to its first customer on Friday.
Chairman Ratan Tata had showcased the Nano at an auto show in New Delhi in January last year, but consumer bookings began only in April this year after the project was delayed due to land disputes at its planned site in the eastern state of West Bengal.
The plant for producing the Nano was shifted to a new site in Gujarat on the west coast, but the first batch of Nanos would come from its car plant in Pantnagar in northern India.
Tata has assured price protection for the first 1,00,000 customers, for whom the cars will be available for Rs 1,00,000 excluding taxes.
Chairman Ratan Tata had showcased the Nano at an auto show in New Delhi in January last year, but consumer bookings began only in April this year after the project was delayed due to land disputes at its planned site in the eastern state of West Bengal.
The plant for producing the Nano was shifted to a new site in Gujarat on the west coast, but the first batch of Nanos would come from its car plant in Pantnagar in northern India.
Tata has assured price protection for the first 1,00,000 customers, for whom the cars will be available for Rs 1,00,000 excluding taxes.
Calls for 16th july
RESEARCH-Nifty(FUT) R-4285/4335/4475 S-4200/4150/4065;Sensex(CASH)
R-14400/14555/14965 S-14145/13995/13735;MARKET OUTLOOK:VOLATILE WITH
+VE BIAS
RESEARCH: MARKET OUTLOOK: The market sentiments somewhat twisted positive on the back of finance minister’s comments on divestment policy and firm global markets. At the same time, technically, NIFTY ended above 20 days DMA (4230) suggesting positive sign, hence NIFTY can move towards 4360 and 4440 levels. Market may open with an upside gap backed by firm global markets and it can be expected to trade sideways thereafter. The NIFTY has immediate resistance at 4250 and 4292. If it breaks 4326 levels, it could test 4360 levels. On the down side, the support comes in at the 4155 and 4126 levels. Trade cautiously as profit booking can be expected at any time.
9:40 AM 7/16 RESEARCH-Global Market (in %): DOW JONES (+3.07%), S&P 500 (+2.96%), NASDAQ (+3.51%), FTSE (+2.57%), DAX (+3.07%), NIKKEI (+1.43%), HANG SENG (+1.89%) & SGX NIFTY (+56 POINTS)
11:13 AM 7/16 RESEARCH: LT Q1'10 PAT (INCREASED BY 165.45%) AT 1598 CR VS 602 CR(YOY)
12:41 PM 7/16 RESEARCH: EUROPEAN MARKET UPDATE : FTSE(-0.3%), DAX (-0.4%), CAC (-0.3%)
2:12 PM 7/16 RESEARCH - INTRADAY CALL ( CASH ) : ZEEL TGT ACHIEVED. GIVEN A INTRADAY RETURN OF 7.1%
R-14400/14555/14965 S-14145/13995/13735;MARKET OUTLOOK:VOLATILE WITH
+VE BIAS
RESEARCH: MARKET OUTLOOK: The market sentiments somewhat twisted positive on the back of finance minister’s comments on divestment policy and firm global markets. At the same time, technically, NIFTY ended above 20 days DMA (4230) suggesting positive sign, hence NIFTY can move towards 4360 and 4440 levels. Market may open with an upside gap backed by firm global markets and it can be expected to trade sideways thereafter. The NIFTY has immediate resistance at 4250 and 4292. If it breaks 4326 levels, it could test 4360 levels. On the down side, the support comes in at the 4155 and 4126 levels. Trade cautiously as profit booking can be expected at any time.
9:40 AM 7/16 RESEARCH-Global Market (in %): DOW JONES (+3.07%), S&P 500 (+2.96%), NASDAQ (+3.51%), FTSE (+2.57%), DAX (+3.07%), NIKKEI (+1.43%), HANG SENG (+1.89%) & SGX NIFTY (+56 POINTS)
11:13 AM 7/16 RESEARCH: LT Q1'10 PAT (INCREASED BY 165.45%) AT 1598 CR VS 602 CR(YOY)
12:41 PM 7/16 RESEARCH: EUROPEAN MARKET UPDATE : FTSE(-0.3%), DAX (-0.4%), CAC (-0.3%)
2:12 PM 7/16 RESEARCH - INTRADAY CALL ( CASH ) : ZEEL TGT ACHIEVED. GIVEN A INTRADAY RETURN OF 7.1%
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Revised Sensex March 2010 target to 18000: Macquarie
Seshadri Sen of Macquarie Research said that even as the market outlook in the short term remained difficult to call due to mixed cues, he saw an upside to the market in the medium and long term. "We have revised our March 2010 Sensex target to 18,000," he added.
Q1FY10 earnings, he said, were likely to be better than Q4 of FY09. “High beta stocks continue to be our favorites for the long term, financials and infrastructure remain our top bet,” he added.
Speaking on the inflation, he said, the inflation would move up by the end of the year but not to such a high extent as to spook the equity markets.
Here is a verbatim transcript of the exclusive interview with Seshadri Sen
Q: After the recent rally have you had reason to change your year end targets at all for the Index or you pretty much stick with that?
A: We did revise our March 2010 Sensex target to 18,000 around the Budget time, so yes we have because we are seeing continuous earnings upgrade starting to come through already and we think that that process will continue. So from a longer-term perspective we do believe that the market has upside and so yes we do see the previous top that was formed on Budget day being broken.
Q: What is going wrong with the foreign institutional investors (FII) flows over the last few days, since the Budget a billion dollars has gone out of the cash market if you take the QIPs out- is there some disappointment on the back of the Budget, is it monsoons, is it a global trend what is your sense?
A: It is a mixture of all three. To start with very unrealistic expectations were built up after the elections. There were many announcements looked for in the Budget which did not belong to the Budget; FDI in insurance, oil price reform don’t belong to the budget and it was a little unreal for that to be expected. So there were a lot of flows which came in on the back that which I guess moved out.
Globally things also started to falter a bit and so that also added and plus that was a period when monsoon uncertainty was at its high, it now seems to have calmed down a little bit but that was the period when you saw the highest amount of monsoon uncertainty which also led to a little bit of outflows. But if the economy recovers and the earnings upgrade start to come through, you will probably see some of those FII flows start to come back.
Q: Yesterday a lot of people watched what the Finance Minister had to say quite carefully about the roadmap for disinvestment, how he is going to treat the fiscal deficit, market borrowing, did that allay some of the concerns which global investors expressed after the Budget?
A: Some of it yes but not all of it because while the promise is there of fiscal improvement, we believe at Macquarie that this is a temporary phase where the fiscal deficit will remain high but the truth is that what is out there are the moment is the FY10 number, the rest of it is little bit of hope. So to some extent, some of the concerns have been allayed. People were looking for issues to be dealt in the budget which did not belong to the budget and yesterday’s address has addressed some of those concerns with the market.
But I think from here on some of this investors will look to actual movement on the ground before they start taking that on board.
Q: To stay with macros, the one concern that seems to be coming to the fore is the rise of inflation and how equity markets perform in an inflationary environment- do you see that as a risk as well?
A: We don’t see inflation definitely remaining at these levels. Inflation will perk up a little bit towards the end of the year but I don’t think it will go up to the extent that it will completely spook the equity markets. You cannot have a perpetually 0% environment and economic growth and equity market performance - all three cannot exist together. So as long as inflation stays moderate but higher than the current levels, I don’t think it’s a concern. To answer your question, yes inflation will perk up sometime towards end of this year or early part of next year but I don’ think it will be to the extent that it will spook the equity markets.
Q: We are very young in earning season but what are your expectations of this quarters earnings might go by and what it might do to justify the way market is trading right now?
A: This earnings season, I don’t think will be spectacular, it won’t be terrible either. We were all expecting an economic recovery only in the second half of this year; we are still going through a slightly difficult period for the economy and this earnings season obviously looks back at the April to June quarter when the economy was still tottering a bit. So it will be better than the January-March season, which is one positive cue for the market but it certainly won’t justify the current valuations but I think the valuations look beyond this current quarter.
Everybody recognizes that the economy is coming out of a trough and as long as the lead indicators for an economic recovery in the second half remain in place, I am not sure that the market will be too spooked by relatively ordinary earnings numbers. I just want to say that I don’t think they will be terrible but they will be just ordinary.
Q: From a tactical perspective what would you do now – would you load up on high beta which has been leading this rally, infrastructure, real estate, financials, metals or would you want to lean a bit more on the defensive side after the current rally and the recent correction that you have seen?
A: Tactically short-term you may want to load up a bit on defensives but we have a slightly longer-term view and for that I think the so called high beta names continue to dominate, are favourites. We do expect just the sectors that you enumerated financials, property, infrastructure do remain our favourites because we think there is still upside to the market and it is better to play leverage to an improving economy rather than trying to be defensive at this stage.
But in the short-term defensives may work better but that is really difficult call to make.
Q1FY10 earnings, he said, were likely to be better than Q4 of FY09. “High beta stocks continue to be our favorites for the long term, financials and infrastructure remain our top bet,” he added.
Speaking on the inflation, he said, the inflation would move up by the end of the year but not to such a high extent as to spook the equity markets.
Here is a verbatim transcript of the exclusive interview with Seshadri Sen
Q: After the recent rally have you had reason to change your year end targets at all for the Index or you pretty much stick with that?
A: We did revise our March 2010 Sensex target to 18,000 around the Budget time, so yes we have because we are seeing continuous earnings upgrade starting to come through already and we think that that process will continue. So from a longer-term perspective we do believe that the market has upside and so yes we do see the previous top that was formed on Budget day being broken.
Q: What is going wrong with the foreign institutional investors (FII) flows over the last few days, since the Budget a billion dollars has gone out of the cash market if you take the QIPs out- is there some disappointment on the back of the Budget, is it monsoons, is it a global trend what is your sense?
A: It is a mixture of all three. To start with very unrealistic expectations were built up after the elections. There were many announcements looked for in the Budget which did not belong to the Budget; FDI in insurance, oil price reform don’t belong to the budget and it was a little unreal for that to be expected. So there were a lot of flows which came in on the back that which I guess moved out.
Globally things also started to falter a bit and so that also added and plus that was a period when monsoon uncertainty was at its high, it now seems to have calmed down a little bit but that was the period when you saw the highest amount of monsoon uncertainty which also led to a little bit of outflows. But if the economy recovers and the earnings upgrade start to come through, you will probably see some of those FII flows start to come back.
Q: Yesterday a lot of people watched what the Finance Minister had to say quite carefully about the roadmap for disinvestment, how he is going to treat the fiscal deficit, market borrowing, did that allay some of the concerns which global investors expressed after the Budget?
A: Some of it yes but not all of it because while the promise is there of fiscal improvement, we believe at Macquarie that this is a temporary phase where the fiscal deficit will remain high but the truth is that what is out there are the moment is the FY10 number, the rest of it is little bit of hope. So to some extent, some of the concerns have been allayed. People were looking for issues to be dealt in the budget which did not belong to the budget and yesterday’s address has addressed some of those concerns with the market.
But I think from here on some of this investors will look to actual movement on the ground before they start taking that on board.
Q: To stay with macros, the one concern that seems to be coming to the fore is the rise of inflation and how equity markets perform in an inflationary environment- do you see that as a risk as well?
A: We don’t see inflation definitely remaining at these levels. Inflation will perk up a little bit towards the end of the year but I don’t think it will go up to the extent that it will completely spook the equity markets. You cannot have a perpetually 0% environment and economic growth and equity market performance - all three cannot exist together. So as long as inflation stays moderate but higher than the current levels, I don’t think it’s a concern. To answer your question, yes inflation will perk up sometime towards end of this year or early part of next year but I don’ think it will be to the extent that it will spook the equity markets.
Q: We are very young in earning season but what are your expectations of this quarters earnings might go by and what it might do to justify the way market is trading right now?
A: This earnings season, I don’t think will be spectacular, it won’t be terrible either. We were all expecting an economic recovery only in the second half of this year; we are still going through a slightly difficult period for the economy and this earnings season obviously looks back at the April to June quarter when the economy was still tottering a bit. So it will be better than the January-March season, which is one positive cue for the market but it certainly won’t justify the current valuations but I think the valuations look beyond this current quarter.
Everybody recognizes that the economy is coming out of a trough and as long as the lead indicators for an economic recovery in the second half remain in place, I am not sure that the market will be too spooked by relatively ordinary earnings numbers. I just want to say that I don’t think they will be terrible but they will be just ordinary.
Q: From a tactical perspective what would you do now – would you load up on high beta which has been leading this rally, infrastructure, real estate, financials, metals or would you want to lean a bit more on the defensive side after the current rally and the recent correction that you have seen?
A: Tactically short-term you may want to load up a bit on defensives but we have a slightly longer-term view and for that I think the so called high beta names continue to dominate, are favourites. We do expect just the sectors that you enumerated financials, property, infrastructure do remain our favourites because we think there is still upside to the market and it is better to play leverage to an improving economy rather than trying to be defensive at this stage.
But in the short-term defensives may work better but that is really difficult call to make.
Calls for 15th july
RESEARCH-Nifty(FUT) R-4155/4205/4320 S-4085/4040/3970;Sensex(CASH)
R-13985/14120/14475 S-13765/13630/13415;MARKET OUTLOOK:VOLATILE
WITH+VE BIAS
(7/15/2009 10:39:11 AM): RESEARCH: BTST CALL (CASH): BOOK PROFITS IN RENUKA
(7/15/2009 11:32:25 AM): RESEARCH- INTRADAY CALL (CASH) : BUY ONGC ABOVE 1024 TGT 1044 SL 1010
(7/15/2009 12:19:21 PM): RESEARCH: INTRADAY CALL (FUTURES): NIFTY SL TRIGGERED
R-13985/14120/14475 S-13765/13630/13415;MARKET OUTLOOK:VOLATILE
WITH+VE BIAS
(7/15/2009 10:39:11 AM): RESEARCH: BTST CALL (CASH): BOOK PROFITS IN RENUKA
(7/15/2009 11:32:25 AM): RESEARCH- INTRADAY CALL (CASH) : BUY ONGC ABOVE 1024 TGT 1044 SL 1010
(7/15/2009 12:19:21 PM): RESEARCH: INTRADAY CALL (FUTURES): NIFTY SL TRIGGERED
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Finally the markets have given some reason to smile
The strong upmove today has been a big relief in an otherwise bearish market till now.
Post budget, the markets have been bearish, and have not given a chance to the long investors to exit.
The sentiment is reflecting in the general volume and brokerage numbers. While the market volumes have been down, some of the partners' volumes have fallen much more sharply.
I am sure all of you must be wondering, how to get out of this situation. After tasting successes in the month of May and June, July has been really subdued.
This trend reversal has been a learning experience and I think all of us should wisen up with this.
There are a few things that we have observed after looking at the broad numbers -
1. A lot of clients built long positions at 15000 levels with expectations that the markets would go up. While the correction was quite gradual, till the budget day, the clients have held their positions.
2. The pre-budget expectations were very high and there was a sense that if the budget does not live up to expectations, the markets will fall sharply. These long clients were betting too much on the budget.
3. Post the budget, the fall has been very sharp closing the exit options for the clients.
The learning that we have are quite a few -
1. The clients should be nimble and should move with the market trends.
2. Stop losses are extremely important when you are investing for short periods (upto 3 months).
3. Hedging whenever there are market moving events like budget, election, key quarterly results, is very important.
4. Derivatives can help offset the risks.
Friends, I am sure you are looking at ways and means to improve your volumes and revenues. One of the key things to grow the broking business is active client base. The more the number of active clients, the more revenue can you make.
Therefore acquiring new clients (of good quality) is as important as activating the existing clients.
There are quite a few clients who have not participated in the post March rally yet. This correction is a great opportunity to approach these clients and get them started.
To help and motivate you, there is an exciting activation contest that has been launched a week before. If you get the targeted number of clients traded, you can earn rewards every day.
My request and suggestion to all of you is to activate as many clients as possible. There are a host of inputs now available to you from research to assist you in getting more active clients.
I will keep writing to you. Do send me your feedback
Post budget, the markets have been bearish, and have not given a chance to the long investors to exit.
The sentiment is reflecting in the general volume and brokerage numbers. While the market volumes have been down, some of the partners' volumes have fallen much more sharply.
I am sure all of you must be wondering, how to get out of this situation. After tasting successes in the month of May and June, July has been really subdued.
This trend reversal has been a learning experience and I think all of us should wisen up with this.
There are a few things that we have observed after looking at the broad numbers -
1. A lot of clients built long positions at 15000 levels with expectations that the markets would go up. While the correction was quite gradual, till the budget day, the clients have held their positions.
2. The pre-budget expectations were very high and there was a sense that if the budget does not live up to expectations, the markets will fall sharply. These long clients were betting too much on the budget.
3. Post the budget, the fall has been very sharp closing the exit options for the clients.
The learning that we have are quite a few -
1. The clients should be nimble and should move with the market trends.
2. Stop losses are extremely important when you are investing for short periods (upto 3 months).
3. Hedging whenever there are market moving events like budget, election, key quarterly results, is very important.
4. Derivatives can help offset the risks.
Friends, I am sure you are looking at ways and means to improve your volumes and revenues. One of the key things to grow the broking business is active client base. The more the number of active clients, the more revenue can you make.
Therefore acquiring new clients (of good quality) is as important as activating the existing clients.
There are quite a few clients who have not participated in the post March rally yet. This correction is a great opportunity to approach these clients and get them started.
To help and motivate you, there is an exciting activation contest that has been launched a week before. If you get the targeted number of clients traded, you can earn rewards every day.
My request and suggestion to all of you is to activate as many clients as possible. There are a host of inputs now available to you from research to assist you in getting more active clients.
I will keep writing to you. Do send me your feedback
Calls for 14th july
RESEARCH -Nifty (FUT) R-4000/4035/4120 S-3950/3915/3865; Sensex (CASH)
R-13500/13600/13840 S-13360/13255/13115; MARKET OUTLOOK:
VOLATILE 8.57A
RESEARCH: MARKET OUTLOOK: NIFTY has disappointed after the budget and poor monsoon. Technically NIFTY is trading below the psychological support level of 4092 suggesting weak outlook. Break above 4092 on daily closing basis, NIFTY can move towards 4130 & 4202 levels or even 4232 in short term. Strong recovery can be expected only above 4232 levels.As for intraday’s trade, NIFTY may open with an upside gap and it can be expected to trade sideways. If NIFTY sustains above 4020 levels, then upside target can be placed at 4092 or even 4130 levels. While on the downside, Nifty is likely to take support at 3934 and 3918 levels.
9:46 AM 7/14 RESEARCH-Global Market (in %): DOW JONES (+2.27%), S&P 500 (+2.49%), NASDAQ (+2.12%), FTSE (+1.82%), DAX (+3.19%), NIKKEI (+2.37%), HANG SENG (+2.31%) & SGX NIFTY (+57 POINTS)
11:35 AM 7/14 RESEARCH: SHORT-TERM FUNDAMENTAL CALL : BUY BANK OF RAJ CMP 47 TGT 50.5 SL 45.3
12:22 PM 7/14 RESEARCH : HDFC Bank Q1 PAT down by 4% to Rs 606.11 cr Vs 630.88(QoQ)
1:23 PM 7/14 RESEARCH:INTRADAY CALL (CASH) : BUY INDIA CEM ABOVE 135 TGT 140 SL 132.50
3:00 PM 7/14 RESEARCH : BTST CALL ( CASH ): BUY RENUKA ABOVE 130 TGT 136.50 SL 126.75
R-13500/13600/13840 S-13360/13255/13115; MARKET OUTLOOK:
VOLATILE 8.57A
RESEARCH: MARKET OUTLOOK: NIFTY has disappointed after the budget and poor monsoon. Technically NIFTY is trading below the psychological support level of 4092 suggesting weak outlook. Break above 4092 on daily closing basis, NIFTY can move towards 4130 & 4202 levels or even 4232 in short term. Strong recovery can be expected only above 4232 levels.As for intraday’s trade, NIFTY may open with an upside gap and it can be expected to trade sideways. If NIFTY sustains above 4020 levels, then upside target can be placed at 4092 or even 4130 levels. While on the downside, Nifty is likely to take support at 3934 and 3918 levels.
9:46 AM 7/14 RESEARCH-Global Market (in %): DOW JONES (+2.27%), S&P 500 (+2.49%), NASDAQ (+2.12%), FTSE (+1.82%), DAX (+3.19%), NIKKEI (+2.37%), HANG SENG (+2.31%) & SGX NIFTY (+57 POINTS)
11:35 AM 7/14 RESEARCH: SHORT-TERM FUNDAMENTAL CALL : BUY BANK OF RAJ CMP 47 TGT 50.5 SL 45.3
12:22 PM 7/14 RESEARCH : HDFC Bank Q1 PAT down by 4% to Rs 606.11 cr Vs 630.88(QoQ)
1:23 PM 7/14 RESEARCH:INTRADAY CALL (CASH) : BUY INDIA CEM ABOVE 135 TGT 140 SL 132.50
3:00 PM 7/14 RESEARCH : BTST CALL ( CASH ): BUY RENUKA ABOVE 130 TGT 136.50 SL 126.75
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