Saturday, June 20, 2009

Mahindra Holidays & Resorts India Ltd- IPO (Subscribe)

Company Profile
Mahindra Holidays & Resorts India Ltd (MHRIL) is incorporaed in 1996. MHRIL is an
established player in the leisure hospitality segment, and provides holidays through
vacation ownership memberships. The members enrolled for the company’s
offerings can reside at resorts in a range of locations, for a pre-determined number
of days for a fixed period.
MHRIL’s flagship brand is Club Mahindra Holidays, which has been selected as
Superbrand 2009. MHRIL has also introduced new vacation ownership offerings such
as Zest and Club Mahindra Fundays, Mahindra Homestays, travel and holiday related
services through club mahindra.
The cumulative member base increased to 92,825 in fiscal 2009 from 38,691 in
fiscal 2006. As of May 31, 2009, MHRIL has 96,067 members and 27 resorts across
India and Thailand, of which it own 11 properties and others are leased. About
35.18% of new member additions in FY09 came from referrals by existing members.

Objects Of The Issue

Investment Rationale
 Market leader: It is one of the leading leisure hospitality providers in
India. The Club Mahindra vacation ownership members increased to 96067
members in May 2009 from 38,691 members in 2006.
 Domestic expansion: The Company is expanding its network by launching
seven new projects at Pondicherry, Kumbhalgarh (Rajasthan),
Kodambakkam (Tamil Nadu), Binsar (Uttaranchal), Theog (Himachal
Pradesh) and Tungi (Maharashtra), which will increase its top line in the
long run.
 Expanding internationally: It is in the process of evaluating markets such
as South Africa and China, and it has also plans for investment in Austria.
This will increase its member base and resort inventory thus resulting in
increased revenues.
Investment Concern
 The company’s revenues are highly dependent on the travel industry and
declines in or disruptions to the travel industry, such as those caused by
terrorism, natural disasters, financial instability or a downturn in economic
growth, may adversely affect its financial condition and results of
operation.

Industry Profile
 The domestic trips are expected to grow at a CAGR of 11.7% over 2007-
2012, to reach approximately 871 million trips in 2012 from 527 million
domestic tourists in the year 2007.Further the domestic tourism
expenditure is expected to rise to Rs 2,621.1 billion, growing at a CAGR of
13.6% over 2007-2012.


Valuation
The company has priced its issue at 29.02x of its FY09 earnings. The issue seems to
be normally priced compared with its peer. Further its consistence financial
performance, growing Indian economy and increase in consumer spending looks
attractive for the company. So we recommend to “SUBSCRIBE” the issue for long
term perspective and listing gains.

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK-19062009


NIFTY remains in bull mood.!!! Considering the bull has a lot of force …
In the previous weekly market outlook letter, as we mentioned that NIFTY may
continue its bullish trend, but it has to grab relax point…!!! Of course…NIFTY
exactly grabbed it.
Going on to the GLOBAL face, the Asian equity indices NIKKEI & HANG SENG are
drastically down by more than 3% against previous week, after having failed to produce
a meaningful rebound on Wall Street due to profit booking. The weekly chart of most
global equity indices are signaling that an uptrend can continue for few more weeks.
On the domestic wall, as of last week, the market shadow climate was characterized by
heavy selling by foreign institutional investors and profit booking by domestic investors.
Overall NIFTY is likely to remain in BULL mood and the short-term bull mood will face
resistance at 4601 and then 4693 levels. NIFTY technically created lower top lower
bottom formation over the last five trading sessions, which suggests pessimistic signal.
At the same time, the bull has a lot of force behind the bear when market is in uptrend.
So one can go fresh long if NIFTY trades above 4375 levels on expectations of short
covering. Above 4494 levels, NIFTY can move towards 4537 and 4601 levels. Looking
at the downside, the support zone for NIFTY is seen at 4206 and 4092 levels. If NIFTY
crosses this level, then the downtrend decider can be expected to capture the market.
What about Futures & Options market…!!! The fall in Nifty open interest put call ratio to
below one against last week denotes reduction in short positions in the market.
Generally if PC Ratio is below one, it indicates market is in oversold zone. Hence an
upside bounce back can be expected at any time on NIFTY due to short covering. The
INDEX open interest increased by 14.70% (WoW) while the June contract price was
down by roughly 5.73%, suggesting that short positions has build up in the NIFTY JUNE
contract. The weekly average cost of carry was positive and NIFTY June futures trading
at premium against spot market, suggest positive signs. The weekly average Implied
Volatility (IV) of all INDEX call and put options increased by 6.15% and 5.46%
respectively. This could be due to the expectations about a limited upside and downside
movement in the INDEX. Considering the above said F&O factors, investors are
advised to go fresh long if NIFTY trades above 4375, until then trade cautiously.







MARKET ANALYSIS

The investors seem to have booked profits after the recent solid surge in the stock
prices. The domestic stock market closed on a weak note for the week on back of
heavy selling pressures across the sectors. Weak global cues and Foreign Institutional
selling during the week weighed on the markets, bringing them down by about 5%.

Friday, June 19, 2009

Result

We advised few delivery trades on tuesday, when market was at 4500 abt levels..

Today market touched a low of 4200 Currently at 4300.. 7%+ decline in markets..

OUR STOCKs... LOOK AT THEM.. ALLL UP FROM COST...

SUNPHARMA

AXISBANK

BHARTIARTL

GVKPIL

Intraday Call

Buy HDFC Above- 1553 TGT- 1560/1570/1585
SL- 1543 (CAsh- 14:06)

Stay Short on PANTALOON @ Rs.309.0, Stop Loss :Rs.338.57

Stay LONG on L&T @ Rs.1448.90; Stop Loss : Rs.1347.23

Stay LONG on DRREDDY @ Rs.737.00; Stop Loss : Rs.677.78

RESEARCH- INTRADAY CALL (CASH) : IVRCLINFRA TGT OF 288 ACHIEVED.GIVEN AN INTRADAY RETURN OF 7%.

RESEARCH: INTRADAY CALL (CASH): SHORT SELL LITL BELOW 330 TGT 313 SL 335

2:51 PM 6/19 RESEARCH: INTRADAY CALL ( CASH ): BUY WIPRO ABOVE 380.50 TGT 403 SL 376


2:55 PM 6/19 buy ofss for btst @ 1220-1223

Delivery call- Short term

Buy BankofIndia @ 337 SL-328 TGT-347 (2 Days hold) Cash (14:11)

Reserch -Today view-19th june

RESEARCH: MARKET OUTLOOK: On the F&O front, an increased in open interest along with negative price movements suggests that short positions build up in the June NIFTY contract. The NIFTY PUT – CALL ratio of open interest is in OVERSOLD zone indicating an upside bounce back can be expected on NIFTY at any time.Technically, overall market trend is likely to remain uptrend. As for intraday’s trade, market may open flat topositive and it can be expected to trade higher levels. The NIFTY has resistance at 4355 and 4375. If it breaks this level, itcould test at 4464. On the downside, the NIFTY is likely to test support at 4222 and 4189. Below this level, then Nifty maydrag to 4115. Short covering can be expected above 4375 levels.

10:18 AM 6/19 RESEARCH- INTRADAY CALL (CASH) : BUY SBIN ABOVE 1741 TGT 1793 SL 1710

11:47 AM 6/19 RESEARCH: INTRADAY MARKET OUTLOOK: THE NIFTY IS LOOKING RANGEBOUND BETWEEN 4250 - 4310 LEVELS. IF NIFTY MOVES BELOW 4250 THEN IT MAY TEST AT 4220 AND 4180. ON THE OTHER HAND, IF NIFTY TRADES ABOVE 4310 THEN IT CAN MOVE TOWARDS 4375 AND 4420. SHORT COVERING CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE LATER PART OF THE DAY.

12:16 PM 6/19 RESEARCH: INTRADAY CALL (CASH): BUY MARUTI ABOVE 1057 TGT 1090 SL 1040

1:23 PM 6/19 RESEARCH : INTRADAY CALL ( CASH ) : SHORT SELL DLF BELOW 320 TGT 304 SL 325

CALL FOR THE DAY-19th June

CALL FOR THE DAY
BUY SBI IN CASH IN NSE ABOVE 1731,
WITH SL OF 1699, TGTS 1749/1765/1800

BUY COPPER MCX
ABOVE 242.60 SL
239.45 TGT
244.20/246.40.


IMPORTANT LEVELS ( BULLIONS)
GOLD :
GOLD RESISTANCE AT 14650, SUPPORT AT 14500.
SILVER:
SILVER RESISTANCE AT 22950, SUPPORT AT
22400.
COPPER:
COPPER RESISTANCE AT 242.60, SUPPORT AT
236.70.

Shanghai weekly inventory: Copper +7889, Zinc+3543 and Aluminium +11873.

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